Inside Wisconsin's third down struggles and why there's no one factor to blame: 'We've just got to be better' (2024)

MADISON, Wis. — Don Morton’s Wisconsin football team was winless and listless a month into the 1988 season, smack in the middle of a descent toward the college football abyss.

Five days earlier, on the first day of October, the school had invited 200 former players to campus to celebrate the 100th anniversary of the Badgers’ football program. They had the honor of watching Michigan pummel Wisconsin 62-14 at Camp Randall Stadium, which dropped the Badgers to 0-4. Afterward, Morton jokingly wondered aloud whether it really was still Oct. 1 because it felt as though his team had been on the field “for a couple of days.”

As criticism of Morton mounted and a game against Iowa loomed, he filmed an infamous and hilarious segment for his weekly television show at the suggestion of show host Van Stoutt that seems unbelievable today.

The camera panned a graveyard and stopped at individual tombstones that read “RIP” and marked the score of Wisconsin’s first four losses: 24-14 to Western Michigan, 19-17 to Northern Illinois, 23-3 to Miami and 62-14 to Michigan. Finally, Morton himself emerged from inside a pine coffin box wearing a suit jacket, button-up shirt and tie. He stared at the camera as eerie organ music played and said: “We may be down, but we’re not dead.” The video, thankfully, has been preserved on YouTube for posterity.

That was filmed on a Thursday. Two days later, Iowa promptly walloped Wisconsin 31-6 at Kinnick Stadium. Wisconsin would finish the season 1-10 overall and 1-7 in the Big Ten while ranking last in the country in scoring offense at 9.6 points per game behind an ineffective veer offense.

If you’re wondering where this is going and why it’s relevant at all 33 years later, it helps to provide some context for this next stat. That team converted just 27.9 percent of its third downs, the lowest rate Wisconsin has on record since 1981. The only team to challenge that ignominious mark? This 2021 Wisconsin group, which has converted 28.4 percent of its third downs, currently on pace to be the Badgers’ worst output since the 1988 team.

Things are decidedly less dire for Wisconsin (4-3, 2-2 Big Ten) as a program this time around entering a pivotal Big Ten West game against No. 9 Iowa (6-1, 3-1) on Saturday at Camp Randall Stadium. The Badgers are riding a three-game winning streak and control their path to a division title with five weeks remaining in the regular season. But even if the Badgers continue to find success with a stellar defense and an emerging run game, there’s no denying third-down conversions — or, rather, a lack of conversions — has been a thorn in Wisconsin’s side that could derail its hopes.

Wisconsin has converted just 27 of 95 third downs and ranks 127th out of 130 FBS teams in that category. Only UConn, East Carolina and New Mexico are worse — three teams with a combined record of 7-17. No Big Ten team has finished a season with that low of a third down conversion rate since Illinois in 2016 (28.39 percent), when Lovie Smith’s first team finished with a 3-9 record.

During Wisconsin’s 30-13 victory against Purdue on Saturday, the Badgers converted 1 of 11 third downs. That’s not exactly a recipe for success, but Wisconsin’s defense forced five turnovers, and the run game gained 290 yards. Wisconsin’s only third down conversion occurred when quarterback Graham Mertz connected with tight end Jake Ferguson for a 17-yard gain on third-and-15 from the Badgers’ 27-yard line. The drive ultimately ended in a touchdown that gave Wisconsin a 7-0 first-quarter lead.

The most glaring third down failure Saturday came when Wisconsin faced third-and-goal at the Purdue 1 and ran a jet sweep to receiver Kendric Pryor around the right side. Pryor ran out of room on the sideline and lost four yards. The play came after running back Chez Mellusi was stuffed for no gain on consecutive carries.

Wisconsin coach Paul Chryst acknowledged after the game that his team was “not many for a lot” on third down and lamented the group’s inefficiency in that area. He was asked during his weekly news conference Monday to assess what he has seen with the team’s third down struggles.

“Not all of them are third and longs,” Chryst said. “So how do you find ways to be effective on third or fourth, short yardage? And knowing you’re going to have some loaded boxes and whatnot? And then as you continue backward, it comes down to did the scheme give them a chance? I think you’ve always got to look at that and are we executing on it? To do that, it’s going to take everyone.

“When we do, then we’ve got a pretty good chance at it. Certainly you’ve got to go still compete. A lot of those, you still have to win a matchup. You still have to finish a block, finish a throw, finish a catch. So it’s not just one thing. But I think in the end, you’ve got to be productive. And to be productive, you’ve got to be on and there’s got to be consistency across the board.”

In three games this season, the Badgers have converted third downs at a rate under 22 percent and twice under 10 percent. Wisconsin was 3 of 14 against Michigan (21.4 percent) and 1 of 14 against Notre Dame (7.1 percent). Those issues, combined with 16 turnovers committed, have been among the more significant deterrents to the offense’s success.

What makes Wisconsin’s difficulties particularly unusual is that the Badgers have averaged 6.3 yards to go on third down this season, the 16th-best mark in the FBS, according to Pro Football Focus. Every other school ranked in the top 20 of that metric has a third down conversion rate of at least 35 percent, and the top 20 schools collectively average a 44.2-percent third down conversion rate.

Wisconsin has struggled on third down no matter the distance needed to convert a first down. The Badgers’ challenges are particularly notable on third-and-short. Wisconsin has converted 42.4 percent of its third downs with three yards or fewer to go. In 2019, that mark was 67.6 percent, and in 2020, it was 60.0 percent.

Wisconsin has converted 11 of 17 opportunities on third-and-1 this season (64.7 percent, 99th in the FBS). The Badgers converted 25 of 31 third-and-1 opportunities in 2019 (80.6 percent, 37th in FBS) and 14 of 15 tries in 2020 (93.3 percent, 10th in FBS).

“A lot of times it’s execution on our part,” Badgers left tackle Tyler Beach said. “Maybe guys beating us inside on slants or maybe just us not being smart and thinking about the plays. A lot of times you think it’s third-and-1 and you’ve got to get the first. Guys are just trying to mesh in there.

“You’ve got to realize that you’ve got to take a step or you’ve got to actually get your head there. You can’t just lunge at a guy. We just need to be smarter as an O-line group and just trust our technique. I don’t think it’s anything crazy or deep. I think it’s just us trying to make sure we’re taking the right footwork.”

Defenses have attacked Wisconsin on third down in some familiar ways: By blitzing when Wisconsin needs to throw and by loading the box in obvious running situations. Per PFF, Wisconsin has been blitzed on a Big Ten-high 42.6 percent of its third down dropbacks this season. The FBS average is 31.6 percent.

Opponents have loaded the box with eight-plus defenders on 28.1 percent of Wisconsin’s third down plays this season, the second-highest mark in the conference. The FBS average is 18.5 percent. The Badgers have run the ball on 23 of the 27 third down plays in which it faced a loaded box this season. Overall, Wisconsin has called a run play on 24 of 33 third down situations of three yards or fewer to go (72.7 percent). The Badgers have called a pass on 36 of 40 plays of third-and-7 or more (90 percent).

“The biggest thing on third down is trying to keep it in like third and normal,” Mertz said. “The second you get into third-and-extra-long, third-and-10 plus, there’s just a limited amount of things you can do. So for us, it’s trying to be better on first and second down, just keeping us normal, keeping it at third-and-2 instead of third-and-12. And then when we get in those situations, just executing, not forcing anything. We’ve just got to be better on third down.”

Wisconsin clearly is far removed from where it was during the Morton era. But if these Badgers can’t further separate themselves in one major statistical category, then their dreams of a Big Ten West championship may wind up just as buried.

(Top photo: Joe Robbins / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Jesse Temple is a staff writer for The Athletic covering the Wisconsin Badgers. He has covered the Badgers beat since 2011 and previously worked for FOX Sports Wisconsin, ESPN.com and Land of 10. Follow Jesse on Twitter @jessetemple